U.S. Stock Futures Rise as Inflation Gauge May Fall Below 4%

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U.S. stock futures are on the rise today in anticipation of new data that may reveal a decrease in an inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve. If this occurs, it would be the first time in over two years that the gauge has fallen below the 4% threshold.

Market Performance

Here is how the major futures indices are performing:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) are up 143 points, or 0.4%, to 34,035.
  • S&P 500 futures (ES00) have gained 20 points, or 0.5%, reaching 4,357.
  • Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ00) have increased by 97 points, or 0.7%, to 14,957.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 116 points or 0.35% to close at 33,666. The S&P 500 increased by 25 points or 0.59%, reaching 4,300, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 108 points or 0.83% to settle at 13,201.

Economic Data Release

Today, the Commerce Department will release personal income data for August at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This highly anticipated data release will also include the PCE price index, which is favored by the U.S. central bank as an inflation gauge.

It is forecasted that the core PCE price index will rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis or 3.9% year-over-year.

Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, states, “Today’s U.S. inflation and personal spending numbers could go some way to tempering expectations about a November rate hike from the Federal Reserve.”

In addition to the inflation data, the Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will also be released.

Market Analysis

Despite two consecutive days of gains for the S&P 500, it is likely to end the month with a loss of approximately 5%. This downward trend is attributed to the rise in long-term yields.

Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research at Generali Insurance Asset Management, emphasizes that “investors looked increasingly confident that the global economy was escaping the plague of stagflation” earlier in the summer. However, there is now growing doubt about this assumption. Chaigneau adds, “The U.S. economy has been exceptionally resilient to the 525bp Fed tightening but is now showing signs of fatigue. Surging oil prices may keep inflation high for longer.”

Corporate News

Shares of Nike (NKE), a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, are rallying in premarket trade following the apparel maker’s better-than-expected earnings report.

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