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U.S. Crude-Oil Inventories Expected to Rise

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According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, the Energy Department is expected to report a small increase in U.S. crude-oil inventories for the week ended Oct. 6. Nine analysts and traders predict that commercial crude-oil stockpiles will have risen by 900,000 barrels. While three forecasters anticipate a decrease, six are expecting an increase. Estimates range from a decrease of 1.7 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.

The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration will release the closely watched inventory data at 11 a.m. ET Thursday, one day later than usual due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday.

In addition, analysts forecast a rise in gasoline inventories of 400,000 barrels from the previous week. Estimates vary from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3.1 million barrels.

Regarding distillates, which primarily include diesel fuel, forecasts suggest a decrease of 300,000 barrels from the previous week. The range of predictions spans from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.

Refinery Use Data

According to recent data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), refinery use is expected to have declined by 0.3 percentage point from the previous week, settling at 87.0%. Forecasts for this decrease ranged from 0.8 percentage point to a potential increase of 1 percentage point. Notably, two analysts did not make any forecasts.

API’s data for the week also revealed some significant changes in crude supplies, gasoline stocks, and diesel inventories. Crude supplies saw a substantial increase of 12.9 million barrels, while gasoline stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels. On the other hand, there was a decrease of 3.5 million barrels in diesel inventories.

Forecasts

Here are the refinery use forecasts made by various analysts:

| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |—————————|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -1.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt| 1 | -2 | -1 | -0.5 | | DTN | 1.6 | -1.8 | -1 | -0.4 | | Excel Futures | -1.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | -0.5 | | Spartan Capital Securities| -1.1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | n/f | | Mizuho | 3 | -1 | -2 | -0.5 | | Price Futures Group | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | Ritterbusch and Associates| 3 | -1 | -1.7 | -0.8 | | Tradition Energy | 0.5 | -1 | -2 | n/f |

Average Forecast Results:

  • Crude: 0.9 million barrels
  • Gasoline: 0.4 million barrels
  • Distillates: -0.3 million barrels
  • Refinery Use: -0.3 percentage points

Note: All measurements are reported in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is given in percentage points.

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