According to betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have seen an improvement this week. For the first time this year, Trump is now slightly ahead of President Joe Biden with a 32% probability, while Biden stands at 30%.
Interestingly, the chart above also reveals that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California has an 8% chance of getting elected president, despite repeatedly ruling out a White House run. This places Newsom’s probabilities ahead of his Republican rivals for the nomination, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
It’s important to note that betting markets have been unreliable predictors in the past, as observed during last year’s midterm elections. There are several reasons for this, including the right-leaning and predominantly male clientele that participates in political gambling. Additionally, unreliable polls and the influence of prevailing narratives can skew the outcomes within betting markets.
Trump’s increased chances coincide with his decision to skip a GOP primary debate for the second time. Instead, he delivered a speech on Wednesday night, specifically targeting Michigan auto workers. During this speech, he implied that none of the debaters were deserving of becoming his vice president.
The Former President Leads GOP Primary Polls
According to a RealClearPolitics moving average, the former president maintains a staggering 56.6% of support in national primary polls, making him the top contender. Despite facing indictments in multiple election-interference cases, a hush-money scandal, and a classified-documents controversy, many Republican voters continue to rally behind him.
Closest Contenders
In those same polls, Florida Governor DeSantis trails far behind in second place with 14.4% support. Following DeSantis, we have Nikki Haley at 5.8%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 5.1%, and former Vice President Mike Pence at 4.2%. However, when combining the numbers for all non-Trump GOP candidates, their collective support amounts to 35.9% in the national polls. In contrast, the former president’s lead remains commanding at 56.6%.
Eye on Iowa
When focusing specifically on Iowa, which hosts the first major contest in the GOP primary race, non-Trump candidates garner slightly higher support with 46.4%. Nevertheless, the former president still maintains a solid lead with 49.2%.
In Other News…
- DeSantis criticizes Trump’s spending at debate, linking it to current inflation concerns.
- Republican debate highlights concerns around the gas tax and its impact on average citizens.
- At the GOP debate, Ramaswamy proposes banning Instagram and other social media platforms for individuals aged 16 and under.